Lipitor's Sales Tank: Does This Mean There's No Such Thing as a Drug 'Brand'?

One the new drug blogs I like is Pharmalyst. Like Pharmablogger, Pharmalyst is obviously some sort of pharma professional who enjoys dishing from the safety of anonymity -- s/he hasn't filled in their 'about me' section or even provided an email address. But the blog is interesting because Pharmalyst likes playing with numbers and making predictions about who's winning and who's losing.

(And like all good drug bloggers, Pharmalyst has been smart enough to say some kind things about BrandweekNRX.)

This week Pharmalyst engages in some speculation about Pfizer prior to earnings season: "One big name that will be struggling is Pfizer. ... Based on all the chatter on CafePharma, it looks like Pfizer's sales force is a bit too disoriented/demoralized at this point - given all the changes that new CEO Jeff Kindler has unleashed. Expect numbers for other Pfizer brands like Celebrex, Lyrica & Geodon to miss promises."

That's a bold statement, as Quentin Tarantino would say.

Pharmalyst also says: "I don't have access to fancy data tools like IMS but I hear from friends who do that Lipitor has lost a lot of marketshare to Simvastatin & Vytorin (perhaps the BrandweekNRx guys will be kind enough to post some NRx numbers for both Lipitor & Zyprexa)."

Your wish is my  command. Here's the most recent review from Merrill Lynch:

Statins: Zocor's NRx (branded+generic) YOY change was 51.0% vs. the rolling 4-week change of 50.9% and the rolling 12-week change of 48.9%. Pfizer's Lipitor NRx YOY change was -12.8% vs. the rolling 4-week change of -12.8% and the rolling 12-week change of -12.8%. Crestor's NRx YOY change was 22.5% vs. the rolling 4-week change of 29.0% and the rolling 12-week change of 36.2%.  Vytorin's NRx YOY change was 24.0% vs. the rolling 4-week change of 23.7% and the rolling 12-week change of 23.8%.  Zetia's NRx YOY change was 17.0% vs. the rolling 4-week change of 16.0% and the rolling 12-week change of 15.0%.

Zyprexa Franchise: NRx share was 12.2%, down 20 b.p. from last week. NRx's YOY change was -7.6% vs. the rolling 4-week change of -9.0% and 12-week change of -10.6%.

I'm a layman but those Lipitor numbers don't look good. Lipitor is always touted as one of the strongest brands ever -- it's the Coca-Cola of drugs -- but  the sales drop-off has been so sharp it makes me wonder if there is such a thing as a 'brand' in the drug biz. Maybe  these are only products. Why? Because a real brand is able to maintain and hike its prices without a drop off in demand (like Apple and its expensive iPods). And Pfizer hasn't managed that with Lipitor.  Drugs can't do that -- their fates are controlled by actuaries and formularies and PBMs, not the free market ...

I await Pharmalyst's new numbers with baited bated breath...

Comments

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