Claim: Merck Will Lose $130 Million a Year on Gardasil by Stopping Its Controversial Lobbying

How much money will Merck lose following its announcement that it will stop lobbying states to make its Gardasil anti-HPV vaccine mandatory? Pharmalyst, a blogger who does interesting back-of-the-envelope calculations on pharma marketing economics—says it's about $130 million a year.

Sounds bad? Here’s the context:

“The financial hit to Merck is about $130 million per year (till Glaxo & others come up with competing products). These calculations also show that this is a lucrative market and despite Gardasil not being mandatory, Merck is likely to generate about $950 million from sixth grade female students each year.”

So, Merck isn’t giving up that much even though only 19 states and DC (by Pharmalyst’s reckoning) have some sort of Gardasil mandate. Pharmalyst also has a nifty set of charts so you can check his or her numbers. Stopping the lobbying campaign may yet turn out to be even more of a bargain, Pharmalysts says, because “they stand to lose a couple of millions less once you factor in their lobbying cost savings.”

This news comes on the heels of the CDC’s recent decision that Gardasil will be on the Vaccines for Children Program. Not that I want to rehash this debate, but it’s nice to know that the CDC took my position and not my opponents’.

Pharmalyst first came to my attention when he produced a set of stats supporting my reporting on Pfizer’s Exubera—and how its expenses seem to be eclipsing its revenue. See those numbers here.

Comments

[John Mack]

Jim,

You are not accurately portraying the facts when you say that CDC is taking your position and not your oponents'.

Your position --- and correct if I am wrong -- is that Gardasil vaccination should be MANDATED by the state. That is, it should be required of all girls before they can enroll in grade school.

The CDC merely is making the vaccine available to eligible girls, it is not MANDATING anything. Your readers should read the Merck press release you link to, which says, in part: "Eligible adolescents may receive recommended vaccines through VFC once the CDC contracts for the purchase of the vaccine, a process that is now complete."

Note that the word "may" is not equivalent to "must".

The CDC stance, in fact, is closer to my position than yours; namely, the Gardasil vaccine should be made available to all girls who desire to have it, but vaccinations should not be required by state mandate.

John Mack
Pharma Marketing Blog

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