Friedman, Billings, Ramsey reiterated its cloudy view of Pfizer’s billion-dollar bong today. Read about it here. Based on numbers being reported out of Nektar (Pfizer’s bong supplier), PFE has a long way to go before it can make back the money it has laid out on acquisition fees, reps, planned DTC, and ongoing manufacturing fees to Nektar.
In some ways, this “news” isn’t all that new. FBR published a similarly negative report in January, complete with “color” from drug rep bulletin boards (Could that possibly be Café Pharma? You might say that, I couldn’t possibly comment!) Anyway, back in January, FBR predicted PFE’s Exubera revenues would look like this:
“For 2007-2010, our new U.S. Exubera sales estimates are $210 million, $498 million, $643 million, and $760 million, respectively. We are introducing estimates for 2011 and 2012; our U.S. sales estimates are $874 million and $977 million, respectively.”
That adds up to a grand total of $3.9 billion dollars. Remove from that PFE’s $1.4 billion acquisition fee, PFE’s fees to Nektar (currently at $800 million, according to FBR) and its marketing and sales rep expenses, and it is very difficult to see this drug ever getting into the black. Not to mention the fact that even in FBR's rosiest year, 2012, Exubera is still doing less than half the business PFE predicted it will do. I guess David Kliff need not worry about running down Madison Avenue naked anytime soon, as he said he would last week.
Here’s the real mystery: Pfizer has a pretty good recent track record of nixing unprofitable brands in the bud. It killed torcetrapib before it got to market even though that left the company without a replacement for Lipitor. And it walked away from Neurocrine’s indiplon sleep drug at the first sign of trouble. So why is PFE sticking with this loser? There’s only one explanation: CEO Jeffrey Kindler is really, really convinced that the future holds a lot for companies that are experts in inhaled drug delivery.
Given the pace with which other companies are coming out with even-better pills and injectables (like Merck’s Januvia and Lilly’s Memoir), that’s a really optimistic position to hold.
A couple of additional thoughts:
As far as torcetrapib goes, the company didn't "kill it" before it got to market. The drug killed people and so it was a dead rat that couldn't be sold.
And the $1.3 billion investment in Exubera is a sunk cost. It's done. So they have to try to recoup what they can, including selling off that bloated inventory. Not surprising Exubera hasn't been killed as long as the inventory is there and there may be a net profit, excluding sunk costs.
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